US President Barack Obama hopes to visit New Zealand this year – just the third time in history a United States president has been to New Zealand
The visit could have been as early as February 4, for the signing of the controversial Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal. But Cabinet minister Simon Bridges is pouring cold water on that, saying that agreement will be signed by trade ministers, not by leaders.
Instead, it appears Obama will tack his New Zealand visit onto one of two trips to Asia: either May or September.
Yesterday, the exclusive Kauri Cliffs golf lodge in Northland rejected reports of security services visiting this week to conduct advance checks on the resort.
Former Maori Affairs Minister Dover Samuels, who lives at neighbouring Matauri Bay and is closely associated with Kauri Cliffs, said a presidential visit to the resort remained on the cards.
"Tiger Woods came here, the Sultan of Brunei came here," he said.
"Of course the president would want to come."
Samuels is on the Northland Regional Council, which oversees tourism. He hoped Obama would visit Tanemahuta's kauri forest, Ninety Mile Beach and Waitangi, where he would learn about New Zealand's indigenous history.
"You couldn't put a figure on the value to New Zealand. This could be a bonanza for our tourism."
Prime Minister John Key said: "The President has made no secret of the fact he would love to visit New Zealand but at this time I'm unaware of any specific date that such a visit could take place."
Obama and Key both holiday in Hawaii at Christmas. In 2014, they met up for a game of golf. They have not met in Hawaii this year, but Obama has said he hopes to visit New Zealand before the end of his presidency. "I hear it's really nice," Obama said. "We're going to be working with my scheduler."
The only previous visits by American presidents were a one-day flying visit by Lyndon B Johnson in 1966, marred by Vietnam War protests, and Bill Clinton's star-spangled trip to the APEC Summit in Auckland in 1999.
Ernest Bower, a top Asia-Pacific adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC, said Obama would make a trip to Japan's G7 and Vietnam in May. He would travel to the G20 in China and the ASEAN summit in Laos in September.
Bower understood Obama would add New Zealand to one of those trips.
"This would explain why you have heard reports of advance teams in New Zealand," he said.
"One of his early legacy commitments was to become 'America's first Pacific president'. Part of that commitment is to visit more Asian countries than any previous president. I think he wants to ensure New Zealand is one of those countries."
Sources said the Obama visit was a quid pro quo for New Zealand "doing the heavy-lifting" on TPPA negotiations with other Pacific nations.
Bower backed that up: "The US feels aligned with and grateful to New Zealand, generally, and to Prime Minister Key and Trade Minister and future ambassador to the US Tim Groser specifically."
Yesterday, US Ambassador Mark Gilbert expanded on the President's plans this year: "What I can tell you is that when I spoke with the President before I came to New Zealand, he told me he would like to visit," Gilbert said.
"Although the President doesn't have much daylight in his calendar, I know that if he can make a visit to New Zealand happen, he would like to.
"As you can imagine, preparing for a Presidential visit is an enormous and complex task, and occasionally major issues come up that change plans, but we know that one of the best ways to make lasting positive change is by deepening partnerships with good friends like New Zealand.
"Everyone I speak with at the highest levels of our government says that our relationship with New Zealand, across the board, has never been better."
Professor Simon Milne, director of AUT's NZ Tourism Research Institute, said New Zealanders would turn out to see Obama who might not turn out for the Queen, and the high profile of the visit would draw international visitors.
"The US is heading into an election and Obama is looking to establish his legacy. He will not be a lame duck president in his final months," Milne said.
"So this will raise our profile on the global stage. A visit from the President is something like attracting a major international event – it's something that countries vie for."
"There may be some dissent around the TPPA. But most of the photo opportunities will be very well-managed and should present us in a good light."